17.01.2026 by Adrian Rhodes
One bad decision can kill a business – but more often it takes two or three. This guest blog just might help you avoid making them.
I’m sometimes asked, in varying tones of perplexity, “Adrian, what does a management consultantactually do?”
You can find a longer answer to the question in my video on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnzL1G4t2Ak – but here’s a short answer; I help clients make evidence-based decisions to increase profit and reduce risk of disaster.
That can be helping by obtaining and making sense of evidence – either existing evidence that comes from secondary research – things like Government statistics, market reports etc; (relatively) reliable sources that can be used in a feasibility study or business plan, or by conducting primary research with stakeholders – in-depth interviews, focus groups and so on.
Alternatively, or additionally, it can be by helping the client with process of decision making itself, helping them to avoid disasters.
One of the aspects of decision making that causes problems is cognitive biases, where systematic – and thus predictable – errors in thinking occur, leading to distorted perceptions of reality.
These occur as mental shortcuts (heuristics) when processing information. Heuristics can be extraordinarily useful in making quick and simple decisions – and we all use them – but they can cause huge problems when we don’t realise, we are taking short cuts or grossly over simplifying.
Examples include Confirmation bias, Availability bias, Groupthink and the Dunning-Kruger effect (see Tony’s post on this intriguing phenomenon where people over or under estimate their knowledge or level expertise, The Dunning-Kruger Effect – Cosmos Currency Exchange).
As well as helping clients avoid these (and over 100 other biases) by raising awareness of them and encouraging the questioning of beliefs and preconceptions – and those of colleagues, I assist clients in using critical thinking techniques and tools. I edit and sense-check key documents, and act as a sounding board: I “do” critical thinking with and for clients.
An example is SWOT analysis – looking at a business situation, or even a single contract, in terms of our Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats. That sounds simple – and in principle it is, but here’s a top tip: you can’t do it effectively in an hour – and if it doesn’t make your head really hurt, you’re definitely not doing it properly.
With an Australian client, some of the external threats we considered included fire and flood (both particularly prevalent in that geography) other natural disasters, cyber attack, economic factors, social trends (particularly those impacting on availability of skilled labour), supply chain problems and finance/ funding issues. Even without revealing the client, I can’t really mention some of the internal threats that emerged in the management interview programme…
Apart from SWOTs there are lots of other strategy matrices, models and analytical frameworks – I’ve posted on LinkedIn on over a dozen of them – but for now, one other that you might like to look at it is Porter’s Five Forces model. In simple terms, this analyses industry competitiveness and attractiveness by assessing five key forces: rivalry among existing competitors, threat of new entrants, threat of substitutes, bargaining power of buyers, and bargaining power of suppliers. Yes, it was developed for big business, but yes it’s equally appropriate for an SME, and again, using it should make your head hurt- if it doesn’t, you’re simply not digging deep enough.
Apart from specific analytical models, there’s a set of general principles – the What, Why, When, Where and How questions for critical thinking.
Critical thinking is a disciplined process of conceptualizing, applying, analyzing, synthesizing, and/or EVALUATING information gathered from, or generated by, primary or secondary research or observation.
There are, of course, far more than a dozen questions – my list below is indicative, not exhaustive… but applying these can help you avoid making catastrophic decisions
A dozen Questions to Ask
1. Who says so… and what benefit might they get FROM saying so, what’s their vested interest, what’s their credibility? (Yes, do be more than a bit cynical, everyone is selling something, even if it’s only their story.)
2. Who is this potentially harmful to? (And who is it potentially beneficial to – see above.)
3. Who else have you heard say this – and what’s their credibility? (It’s a good idea to seek triangulation.)
4. What are the strengths and weaknesses of the argument? (What’s missing, slightly ‘iffy’ or simply wrong? Is this based on a false premise? And on the other hand, what’s insightful? What provides a useful contrast to what we think we already know?)
5. What would an alternative perspective look like? (And does that seem more plausible- or simpler? Have you heard of Occam’s razor – the principle that, when faced with multiple explanations for the same thing, the simplest one is usually the best? This means the explanation requiring the fewest and likeliest assumptions is most likely to be correct. Note this is a principle not a rule… and note also the danger of singe factor explanations … but if you hear hoof beats, it’s more likely to a horse than a unicorn, the horse explanation is simpler and makes fewer and more plausible assumptions.
6. Where did the original information (really) come from? And what is the provenance of that source? Politician’s stats tend to be less reliable than those emanating from the Office for National Statistics – but even the ONS get it wrong occasionally. And have you ever read two accounts of the same (literal) car crash? Beware urban myths (and business case histories written by people who didn’t dig deep enough e.g. the various stories about Blockbusters’ or Kodak’s demise.)
7. Where can more information come from? (Is there any more information? If not, why not? And would that information corroborate or contradict?)
8. Where does the argument lead (what are the implications)?One way to test the strength of an argument is to follow it to its logical endpoint. If that endpoint becomes unrealistic, harmful, or absurd, that may be telling us the original argument is oversimplified or flawed. Some marketing professionals argue ‘The customer is always right… Hmm!
If the customer is always right, then you must always give refunds, always discount your prices, always increase service levels no matter what the cost, tolerate abusive behaviour… and your business will disappear.
9. When was the information obtained (is it out of date)? Some stats change very slowly; sometimes last year’s figures are ancient history. Which is it in this case?
10. Why is this important? (Or why is this actually unimportant? In other words, how critical is it?)
11. Why are people influenced by this? (And which people?) Who are the stakeholders who can impact on this or be impacted by this? How and why are they likely to be influenced?
12. How can this be used effectively? Or is it just ‘nice to know’: is it relevant?
On this final point, I helped a client who was targeting a very specific audience – potential investors. Over 50% of the information they had prepared was interesting – but of no relevance whatsoever to buyers… I persuaded them to make a U turn.
This is stimulus material for creating your own longer, bespoke checklist for analysing a particular set of information, a proposal for action, or definition of a problem or opportunity. And that will help you reduce risk and uncertainty and reduce bias. But don’t think this is entirely unbiased advice: I’m a management consultant and I (might) like to sell you research and/or consultancy services.
ADRIAN J RHODES.
MSc. C.MRS. F.CIM Chartered Marketer
Great points Adrian, very helpful. Thanks for bringing us this article Tony!