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Market sentiment has see-sawed between risk on and risk off again this week.
The Pound benefits from risk on sentiment and is currently trading at the very top end of the Pound to Euro trading range since February 2020, before the first Covid lockdown hit the UK.
Against the Dollar, the Pound has also risen, albeit in more muted fashion to trade at the 50% one month trading line.
As well as the global energy crisis and ongoing supply chain issues rocking markets, the signals from the likes of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England that they will look at removing the stimulus measures currently in place through monetary and fiscal tightening is also causing market volatility to rise.
Financial markets are now on alert for the Bank of England to raise UK interest rates at a much faster pace than expected throughout 2022 with markets now forecasting that UK interest rates, currently stuck at their all-time record low of just 0.1% will finish up at 0.75% by the end of next year.
Further signals may be gleamed from Chancellor Sunak's budget due on 27 October.
UK data releases this week showed that UK pay increases are being driven by a near-record drop in the number of candidates for job vacancies with recruiters saying salaries offered to permanent and temporary workers have increased at their sharpest rate for 24 years. A survey of 400 recruitment firms also found the number of people available for jobs has fallen to a near-record low.
The ONS (Office for National Statistics) reported this week that UK job vacancies have surged to a record high of 1.1 million in the three months to September, its highest level since records began and over 300,000 vacancies greater than before the Covid pandemic began.
Meanwhile, the UK government announced it will soon begin preparations to land a post-Brexit trade deal with the six Middle Eastern countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
The GCC is a regional trading bloc made up of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait.
The UK has already signed two multi-year agreements with the UAE this year which will result in billions of pounds being invested in the UK economy.
In the US, the pace of US jobs growth stalled for a second consecutive month in September raising questions about when the Federal Reserve can begin scaling back its enormous pandemic-era monetary stimulus, softening the Dollar and allowing the Pound to reclaim some of the recent lost territory.
The Euro has also softened after the Austrian chancellor resigned over the weekend over a corruption probe. Sebastian Kurz resigned just days after he was named as a suspect in an investigation by state prosecutors into grand corruption at the heart of the Austrian government.
Lastly, with COP 26 due between 31 October and 12 November, the markets will be keenly watching for the gaps between the high rhetoric and low actions of the major economies with China ordering its coal mines to increase production by tens of millions of tonnes to counter a national power crisis. By all accounts, reducing China's dependence on fossil fuels has been shelved, at least temporarily. China gets 13% of electricity from renewable sources and 60% from coal.
It begs the question of the value of countries like the UK putting themselves through the financial and other pain of following a net-zero green strategy if the world's second largest economy is increasing the use of dirty fossil fuels like coal.
This week's quote is one of my personal favourites. Its from Carl Gustav Jung "You are what you do, not what you say you'll do."
At Cosmos Currency Exchange, we provide each and every client with a 'currency sat-nav' to guide them through their own individual currency requirement, wholly based on our holistic approach.
We value our long-term relationships, not simply the individual transaction.
Please call us on 0044 (0)1202 804733 or email us at firstname.lastname@example.org to discuss your individual currency requirement in confidence.
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The Currency Cloud is an authorized Electronic Money Institution (EMI). Reference number 900199 and is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 and Payment Services Regulations 2017.
Part of the stock exchange listed Equals Group PLC, Equals Connect Limited is licensed and regulated by HMRC as a Money Services Business, License number 12594438 and is authorized by the Financial Conduct Authority as an authorised payment institution, reference number 671508.
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Cosmos Currency Exchange Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales (Registration number 12414676). Cosmos Currency Exchange services are provided by FCA authorised strategic partners, The Currency Cloud Limited (Registered in England No. 06323311) and Equals Connect Limited (Registration No. 07131446) part of Equals Group PLC (Registration No. 08922461). The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money. FCA registration number: 900199. Equals Connect Limited is authorised by the FCA as an authorised payment institution. FCA registration number 671508.