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Black Friday certainly lived up to its name this year and not because of the usual retail sales frenzy that normally accompanies the day after the US Thanksgiving holiday last week.
Instead, fears of a new virulent Covid variant, called Omicron and its possible impact on the global economy saw the global financial markets hit the panic button on Friday.
In the stock markets, in New York, the Dow Jones index lost over 2.5% (over 900 points). London's FTSE100 main index lost over 3.6%; the Dax in Frankfurt over 4% and the CAC in Paris nearly 5% to all record their single worst trading day of 2021 to date.
The commodity markets fared no better with oil prices dropping by 13% on Friday to also record its single worst trading day of 2021 to date.
As far as the currency markets were concerned, November has been a crazy volatile month from start to date.
Against the Euro, the Pound started the month by hitting a 20-month high on 3 November, then lost nearly 2 cents on the 4th when the Bank of England caught the markets by surprise by not increasing UK interest rates as was widely predicted then climbed back up to a new 20-month high on the 21st only to lose over a cent and a half last week to open this week close to its 50% one and three month trading line.
Its been more one-way traffic against the Dollar. In November, the Pound has given up over 5-cents against the greenback to hit a 12 month low.
I suspect this might not be the end of the bad news for the Pound with the markets betting of a less than 45% chance of the Bank of England raising UK interest rates at their next monetary policy meeting due on 16 December.
The pressure on the Pound has been exacerbated by news over the last fortnight that hedge funds and speculators have dumped the Pound at the fastest pace since 2007. This has been somewhat masked against the Euro to date because of interest rate rate differentials and the new lockdowns across Europe which were announced even before the emergence of Omicron that has already led to the UK and other western countries re-imposing travel bans to and from a number of Southern African countries where the Omicron strain was first detected.
With UK businesses facing costs increasing at their fastest pace on record with inflation now at a decade high; supply chains wilting and a record number of job vacancies being recorded in November there are now real concerns of a return to a stagflation cycle that the UK has not faced since the pre-Thatcher 1970's.
Not overly surprising then that just weeks after the COP26 climate summit, a survey showed that more than half of UK investors admit sustainable investing is not a priority for them with just 19% of those surveyed consider ethical investment to be a savvy financial strategy at the present time.
Even the news that the UK government will not trigger Article 16 on the NI protocol before Christmas did next to nothing to alleviate the pressure on the Pound.
Its not all bad news.
The German real estate giant Coros announced it is opening offices in London in a boost to post-Brexit Britain and the CBI (Confederation of British Industry) reported that British industry has recorded a boom in orders in November with growth hitting its highest measure since 1977.
Meanwhile, Xero’s small business index climbed to a 19-month high last month underlining how far small companies have come from the depths of the Covid-19 crisis.
This morning, the markets have re-opened in recovery mode from Friday's big sell-off but how long will that last?
There seems little prospect of a recovery in the value of the Pound against the Dollar anytime soon but with more Omicron cases reported to date on the continent than so far in the UK, there is more chance of seeing the Pound fare better between now and year end against the Euro.
This week's quote comes from the great Marie Currie, the first woman to win a Nobel prize and the first person to win a Nobel in two different fields (Physics in 1903 and Chemistry in 1911) "Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more so that we may fear less".
With so many conflicting factors contributing to the VIX index, a measure of volatility in the financial futures markets hitting a 6-month high last week, it has never been more important for clients to get some insight and perspective.
At Cosmos Currency Exchange, we provide each and every client with a 'currency sat-nav' to guide them through their own individual currency requirement, wholly based on our holistic approach.
We value our long-term relationships, not simply the individual transaction.
Please call us on 0044 (0)1202 804733 or email us at firstname.lastname@example.org to discuss your individual currency requirement in confidence.
We are ready to assist you.
The Currency Cloud is an authorized Electronic Money Institution (EMI). Reference number 900199 and is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 and Payment Services Regulations 2017.
Part of the stock exchange listed Equals Group PLC, Equals Connect Limited is licensed and regulated by HMRC as a Money Services Business, License number 12594438 and is authorized by the Financial Conduct Authority as an authorised payment institution, reference number 671508.
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Cosmos Currency Exchange Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales (Registration number 12414676). Cosmos Currency Exchange services are provided by FCA authorised strategic partners, The Currency Cloud Limited (Registered in England No. 06323311) and Equals Connect Limited (Registration No. 07131446) part of Equals Group PLC (Registration No. 08922461). The Currency Cloud Limited is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) under the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 for the issuing of electronic money. FCA registration number: 900199. Equals Connect Limited is authorised by the FCA as an authorised payment institution. FCA registration number 671508.