2025 Economic Review & 2026 Forecast: Trump Tariffs, GDP Growth, Inflation, Interest Rates, and Global Elections
20/12/2025 by Tony Redondo 2025 was dominated by President Trump’s sweeping tariff regime, which transformed global trade dynamics. From January to April, average US tariff rates surged from 2.5% to 27%, the highest level in over a century. Trump imposed “reciprocal” tariffs on nearly all trading partners, with rates varying by country, alongside targeted measures […]
Recession Signals Intensify For The UK
13/12/2025 by Tony Redondo The UK economy shrank 0.1% in October, it’s second consecutive month of decline as the economy put the brakes on amid consistent speculation about possible tax rises in Rachel Reeves’ second Autumn Budget on 26 November. The ONS (Office for National Statistics) data dealt another blow to the Chancellor’s growth agenda […]
The Bond markets
06/12/2025 by Tony Redondo The Bond markets represent one of the most critical yet underappreciated pillars of modern government finance, functioning as the primary mechanism through which nations fund their operations and manage fiscal policy. In the UK, bonds are called gilts, and the gilt market serves as both a barometer of economic confidence and […]
The Budget
29/11/2025 by Tony Redondo This budget represents the death of aspiration, threatening to drag the UK from sluggish growth into recession. The OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) has downgraded forecasts, indicating that real household disposable income and living standards growth over this parliament will be the second worst since the 1950s. By the end of […]
£30 Billion
22/11/2025 by Tony Redondo After months of speculation, U-turns and chaos, this Labour government’s second budget is nearly upon us with Chancellor Rachel Reeves looking to bridge a £30 Billion fiscal gap next Wednesday, 26 November. Reeves’ 2024 budget left only £9.9 billion of headroom against fiscal rules in 2029-30, a cushion that has long […]
The Dunning-Kruger Effect
15/11/2025 by Tony Redondo The Dunning-Kruger effect occurs when a person’s lack of knowledge and skill in a certain area causes them to overestimate their own competence. By contrast, this effect also drives those who excel in a given area to think the task is simple for everyone, leading them to underestimate their abilities. Currency […]
Déjà Vu
08/11/2025 by Tony Redondo Tuesday, 4 November. In an unusual move, Chancellor Rachel Reeves assembled a hastily arranged press conference at short notice just three weeks ahead of her second budget, due on 26 November. In October 2024, the Chancellor’s first budget statement increased tax by £40 billion per annum on average and annual borrowing […]
Dumped
01/11/2025 by Tony Redondo Currency Exchange Rates Update The Pound Sterling was well and truly dumped in October, dropping against 98% of global currencies, its worst month since September 2022 (Truss/Kwarteng mini-Budget turmoil) and recording its worst monthly run in nine years against the Euro. Last month, the Pound lost nearly 1.6% in the last […]
Demographics
18/10/2025 by Tony Redondo According to the United Nations, India leads both the births and deaths charts with 23 million births and 10 million deaths, resulting in a net increase of 13 million. China ranks second for births with 9 million but experienced 12 million deaths for a net decline of 3 million. Nigeria comes […]
Pre-Budget Anxiety
11/10/2025 by Tony Redondo The Budget may still be over six weeks away but there seems no end to the anxiety and speculation as to what Chancellor Rachel Reeves will announce on the 26th of November. The respected NIESR (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) have warned Reeves that raising VAT would have a […]