Down In The Dumps
26/07/2025 by Tony Redondo Both the UK economy and the Pound Sterling are down in the dumps. The UK economy’s metrics are increasingly dire. The deficit is now at 5.7% of GDP, the third highest among 28 advanced European economies. Public debt stands at £2.7 trillion, or 96% of GDP, the sixth-highest mark globally. Between […]
Reeves’s Reforms
19/07/2025 by Tony Redondo Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled pro-growth financial reforms, dubbed the “Leeds Reforms”, aimed at cutting red tape and boosting investment, saying regulation had become “a boot on the neck” of businesses in her Mansion House speech last week. Some may accuse her of having a ‘brass neck’ given the state of the […]
Further And Faster
12/07/2025 by Tony Redondo Post-election last July, Chancellor Rachel Reeves told her Treasury team that Labour’s mission was to “deliver economic growth that is felt across the country, going further and faster than before.” After a year in office and her 2024 budget that increased business taxes by £40bn, the Chancellor will be sweating on […]
Are Tariffs Going to Take Centre Stage Again?
05/07/2025 by Tony Redondo President Trump’s 2 April ‘Liberation Day’ tariff and subsequent announcements pushed tariffs to their highest levels in a century. It’s been calmer of late with the US and China coming to an agreement. It’s also a done deal with Vietnam. A deal with India looks imminent. Trump zeroed in on Canada, […]
U-Turns
28/06/2025 by Tony Redondo Keir Starmer’s government has made three major policy U-turns in 2025 (winter fuel payments, grooming gangs’ inquiry, and disability benefit cuts). Including significant reversals from his time as opposition leader, the number goes up to between 10-15 major U-turns since 2020. Starmer, deputy PM Angela Rayner and the PM’s chief of […]
Is the UK in need of a factory reset?
21/06/2025 by Tony Redondo On 4 July, Labour will have been in power for exactly a year. On reflection, is the UK in need of a factory reset? The UBS’s (Union Bank of Switzerland) annual Wealth Report shows the UK has suffered the second highest fall in wealth of any major economy in 2024. Average […]
The Ricardian Equivalence
14/06/2025 by Tony Redondo This was proposed by David Ricardo, one of the most influential classical economists, in the 19th century and later formalized by Robert Barro, a US macroeconomist in the 1970s. It suggests that government deficit spending does not stimulate aggregate demand because rational consumers anticipate future tax increases to pay off the […]
The Laffer Curve
07/06/2025 by Tony Redondo The Laffer Curve is an economic concept illustrating the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue. It suggests that at a 0% tax rate, revenue is zero, and at a 100% tax rate, revenue is also zero (as no one would work if all income were taxed). Between these extremes, revenue […]
Sell America Sentiment prevails
31/05/2025 by Tony Redondo The US Dollar continues to dip as the Moody’s debt downgrade, weak GDP and TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) continue to fuel a ‘Sell America’ sentiment in the financial markets.Last week, Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from ‘Aaa’ to ‘Aa1’ due to growing debt concerns. Weak US GDP data with […]
Brexit reset or surrender?
24/05/2025 by Tony Redondo PM Sir Keir Starmer announced details of a UK-EU Brexit “reset” deal: – What Starmer’s new UK-EU deal means for you The BCC (British Chambers of Commerce) welcomed the new UK-EU reset deal saying that this “summit marks a new beginning” which is a turning point for British businesses. The […]